Comparative Value of Cognitive and Functional Assessments for Predicting 24-Month Progression from Mild Cognitive Impairment to Alzheimer's Disease: An ADNI Cohort Study
· 2026-09-04 · 原文
DOI：10.64898/2026.09.01.26360561v1?rss=1预印本：medRxiv
Accurate prediction of progression from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer's disease (AD) is important for prognosis, patient management, and clinical trial enrollment. Cognitive and functional assessments are routinely used in memory clinics, but their relative predictive value remains unclear. We sought to identify which assessments are most predictive of 24-month progression from MCI to AD. We analyzed 2,430 participants with baseline MCI from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) who were classified by 24-month progression to AD. Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) models were trained using repeated stratified 5-fold cross-validation with 10 repetitions. We compared demographic and genetic variables, global cognitive measures (MMSE, ADAS-Cog13, CDR-SB, MoCA),
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1. 人话版
Accurate prediction of progression from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer's disease (AD) is important for prognosis, patient management, and clinical trial enrollment.
Cognitive and functional assessments are routinely used in memory clinics, but their relative predictive value remains unclear.
2. 领域脉络
来源板块：板块一 · 研究前沿。
3. 机制拆解
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4. 证据与数字
We sought to identify which assessments are most predictive of 24-month progression from MCI to AD.
We analyzed 2,430 participants with baseline MCI from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) who were classified by 24-month progression to AD.
Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) models were trained using repeated stratified 5-fold cross-validation with 10 repetitions.
5. 反例与边界
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6. 跨领域连接与意外收获
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7. 可复用方法
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8. 术语表
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