Rainfall and Leptospirosis in the Dominican Republic, 2012-2026: A Distributed-Lag Time-Series and Province-Panel Analysis
· 2026-09-04 · 原文
DOI：10.64898/2026.09.01.26361897v1?rss=1预印本：medRxiv
Background: The biological mechanism linking rainfall with leptospirosis transmission is well established, but rigorous quantitative evidence for the insular Caribbean remains scarce, limited mostly to descriptive reports of post-hurricane outbreaks. We aimed to quantify the association between rainfall and leptospirosis incidence in the Dominican Republic, where leptospirosis is endemic, between 2012 and 2026 using a distributed-lag approach. Methods: We conducted an ecological time-series study complemented by a province panel with fixed effects. Case data (5,412 valid cases) were obtained from the national surveillance system (SIP-0276FA51); rainfall data were obtained from 15 INDOMET rain gauge stations across 13 provinces (2000 to 2026). We calculated the cross-correlation function be
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1. 人话版
Background: The biological mechanism linking rainfall with leptospirosis transmission is well established, but rigorous quantitative evidence for the insular Caribbean remains scarce, limited mostly to descriptive reports of post-hurricane outbreaks.
We aimed to quantify the association between rainfall and leptospirosis incidence in the Dominican Republic, where leptospirosis is endemic, between 2012 and 2026 using a distributed-lag approach.
2. 领域脉络
Methods: We conducted an ecological time-series study complemented by a province panel with fixed effects.
3. 机制拆解
We calculated the cross-correlation function be
4. 证据与数字
Case data (5,412 valid cases) were obtained from the national surveillance system (SIP-0276FA51); rainfall data were obtained from 15 INDOMET rain gauge stations across 13 provinces (2000 to 2026).
5. 反例与边界
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6. 跨领域连接与意外收获
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7. 可复用方法
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8. 术语表
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